Six goals in 13 games - Can Chelsea rely on Nicolas Jackson to be their main goalscorer?

Chelsea news: Can Chelsea rely on Nicolas Jackson to be their main goalscorer?

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The pressure to be Chelsea’s main striker has gobbled up some of the finest forwards over the past couple of decades. It’s long been associated with some kind of curse that very few are able to break, with the likes of Fernando Torres, Álvaro Morata, Alexandre Pato, Radamel Falcao, Gonzalo Higuaín, Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku all unable to display the magic they’d shown elsewhere in a Chelsea shirt. Between those seven alone, they scored just 61 goals in 272 Premier League appearances. That’s an average of just 0.22 goals a game.

Senegalese striker Nicolas Jackson, signed from Villarreal for €37 million this summer, will be hoping to avoid that curse. Jackson scored a hat-trick at Tottenham on Monday night which could be the foundation to a change in fortunes as Chelsea’s primary striker, but even in that crazy London derby, remarkably he still somehow underperformed his expected goals tally of 3.37, such were the chances given away by Spurs’ high line with 10 and then eventually nine men. Jackson currently has a market value of €35m.

How has Jackson done at Chelsea this season?

It’s been a ‘topsy turvy’ start to Jackson’s Chelsea career, hovering from the sublime at times with his excellent hold up play, bullying of defenders, and tireless runs, to the comical with some less than convincing finishing and a few very poor misses. But when it comes to conventional strikers, Jackson actually now ranks joint fifth in the Premier League for goals so far this season. Only Erling Haaland (11), Son Heung-Min (8), Callum Wilson (7) and Alexander Isak (6) have more of those playing through the middle.

Chances are certainly coming his way too - Jackson is fifth for shots on target and joint seventh for shots off target this season in the league. His hold up play has probably been the stand out factor for the Senegalese striker. He ranks joint third for successful dribbles from strikers. However, he has won just nine aerial duels, ranking him 21st in the Premier League for forwards alone.

Chelsea’s biggest concern when it comes to sticking with Jackson up top, may be the monumental expected goals stats the club have had this season, despite being 10th place. The Blues have scored 17 Premier League goals, but have an expected goals of 23.45 according to Wyscout. That’s a gap of 6.45 goals - the second biggest in the league behind Everton when it comes to the negative difference between expected goals and goals scored. It’s the same story when it comes to expected points, with a 5.5 points gap between their actual Premier League points (15) to their expected points tally of 20.9 - once again only topped by Everton. Now of course these issues in front of goal can’t be solely blamed on Jackson, but if things don’t change, Mauricio Pochettino may be forced to make an alteration up front.

Speaking about Jackson after his hat-trick against Spurs, Pochettino said, “I think it is about building his confidence. We know when a striker is young and arrives at a club like Chelsea it is massive. He is so young and came from Spain, a different league and he needs to improve. I hope this hat-trick can allow him to play more relaxed and find the confidence he needs. I am happy for him because we know that when strikers don’t score, they suffer. The confidence is there and I am so happy for him because he deserves the boost.”

How does Jackson compare to Chelsea's transfer targets up front?

Over the last few months, Chelsea have been linked with Napoli goal machine Victor Osimhen (Market Value: €120m), Juventus striker Dušan Vlahović (MV: €70m), RB Leipzig’s Loïs Openda (MV: €45m) and Feyenoord’s Mexican sensation Santiago Giménez (MV: €40m).

When comparing these five strikers, it doesn't reflect greatly on Jackson. For league goals, Giménez blows the rest away with 13, but admittedly playing in a weaker league in the Eredivisie. Jackson’s tally of five is second bottom, only beating Vlahović’s four Serie A goals. Jackson has also failed to provide a single assist this campaign - Osimhen is the only other player on this list without an assist to his name.

However, with UEFA’s Financial Fair Play restrictions already being a potential concern for Chelsea, given they have spent over €1 billion in the last two seasons, it may be unlikely the West London club break the bank this season to bring in a new striker. That may give Jackson the time he needs to adjust and prove the doubters wrong.