Scottish Premiership market values - O'Riley continues rise, Cifuentes falls after poor start

©Imago/Content stadium

Following a busy summer transfer window that saw the Scottish Premiership spend €41.8 million on 178 new signings and a dramatic start to the new season in Scotland, now seems like the ideal time to provide an interim market value update for the Scottish top-flight. Across the division, Transfermarkt has made changes to no less than 20% of the players in the league based largely on transfer fees paid and notable performances and runs of form in the opening stages of the season.

Motherwell steal the show with fantastic start to the season

Perhaps the most impressive club in Scotland right now are none other than Motherwell. Following a run of form which has seen them lose just two of their opening 10 games across all competitions, the Steelmen currently sit third in the Premiership and have been able to call on a number of players to lead them to ideal results. Perhaps the most obvious example comes in the form of Blair Spittal, who has two goals and two assists to his name this season. As such, his market value has risen from €550k to €750k. However, he’s not the only top performer at Motherwell. First team players Liam Kelly (+€50k to €650k), Mika Biereth (+€50k to €550k), Bevis Mugabi (+€50k to €400k) and Dan Casey (+€50k to €300k) all saw notable increases too. While young talents Lennon Miller and Brodie Spencer were both given starting market values of €200k each due to the manner in which they’ve broken into Stuart Kettlewell’s squad.

Of course, Motherwell aren’t the only over-performing team in the division this season. St Mirren have been just as impressive and that has been reflected in new market values for Scott Tanser (+€50k to €450k), Zach Hemming (+€50k to €350k), Richard Taylor (+€50k to €150k) and Greg Kiltie (+€25k to €400k). While a number of fresh new faces in the division were granted the first market values of their careers due to breaking into senior football at their respective clubs, such as Hearts pair Aidan Denholm and Macaulay Tait, Andy Dallas and Bobby Wales at Kilmarnock, Tom Ritchie at Aberdeen and Motherwell duo Georgie Ghent and Ewan Wilson.

Market Value

M. O'Riley Central Midfield

€13.00m

The biggest increases in value due to strong performances came in the form of Celtic midfielder Matt O’Riley, who continues to thrive at Parkhead. The 22-year-old Danish born talent has bagged three goals and two assists in his first seven games of the season and as such seen his market value increase by €1m to €10m. Similarly, Rangers pair Rabbi Matondo and Jack Butland have offered strong performances in an otherwise rather subdued Ibrox team and seen their values increase by €500k each to €2.5m and €2m respectively.

Mixed fortunes for Celtic and Rangers’ new signings

Naturally, Glasgow giants Celtic and Rangers dominate the division when it comes to transfer fees spent and such prices and the subsequent form of these new signings have largely dictated the new market values at each club. For example, increases for Celtic signings Maik Nawrocki (+€500k to €4.5m), Luis Palma (+€1m to €3.5m), Odin Thiago Holm (+€300k to €2.8m), Gustaf Lagerbielke (+€1.8m to €3m) and Hyeok-kyu Kwon (+€800k to €1.5m) all saw increases to better reflect the fees paid for them. And the same can be said for new Rangers signing Sam Lammers, whose value rose by €500k to €2.5m. However, transfer fees aren’t the only factors that dictate market value changes.

Market Value

J. Cifuentes Central Midfield

€7.00m

Indeed, both clubs have already seen huge turnovers in squad players as Michael Beale and Brendan Rodgers both attempt to transition away from the stars and performers they inherited from their predecessors. And that has meant some downgrades for players that are no longer as well regarded as they once were. For example, at Celtic there was a drop in value for James McCarthy (-€100k to €400k) and Mikey Johnston (-€300k to €1.2m) and at Rangers Tom Lawrence (-€500k to €3.5m) and Scott Wright (-€500k to €1.2m) also fell. However, the most dramatic fall came in the form of new Rangers signing José Cifuentes, who joined the club for €1.4m and has so far struggled to make an impression at Ibrox. As such, the promise he once showed in MLS has been curtailed for now and the result has been a market value drop from €12m to €8.5m.

How Transfermarkt market values work

The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees. 

The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).